Sunday, September 30, 2007

USU is down and now I know why

There is a problem with information flow. While USU was falling down, there were no newsbites explaining why, with the exception of conspiracy theory that US government was dumping Low Enriched Uranium to... to... uhm... make nuclear sector unappealing? Whatever. People (and bigger stock holders) where simply in the know about which direction the appeal to lift anti-dumping measures against LEU exports from Russia was going. And those who did not know of a direction did nevertheless speculate on an outcome that would be so highly negative for USEC, thus the market consensus. And unfortunately for me I opened position in USU at a bad time. In this light, American Centrifuge Project by USEC is certainly a waste of money. I wonder, could I have known any of this before? Which information source did I miss? Now the likelihood of me closing this position with 56% loss is very high. Oh well, I'll subtract this loss from other gains.

Friday, September 21, 2007

Dow-n-trend estabilished

It was, I guess, estabilished for some while, but it only became obvious to me today. Mr. Hulbert was right, that really was a triple-top in July. As I see it now, the rally is on its last legs. I give Dow Jones Industrial Average a week to hang in the current range of 13750-14000, and it's only down from there. So far, I sold into this rally my OXY (64.5), ERTS (56.09), and NOK (34.09). I'd want to let go of LUKOY (90.45), EWT (18.43), NTDOY (66.19), COP (92.19) and AMD (14.91). Set the limit trades, but as usual, I may have guessed the tops for those wrong. We'll see. I have my doubts on AMD, though, it may go higher since its Barcelonas are selling very well. Newegg is charging > 100% premium on preorders, and no evaluation server can be had from one brand name top-5 PC server vendor.

Another issue that remains, why do I and should I hold on to stoks that have losses currently? USU and NFLX are the loss leaders... One flawed line of thinking is, they're so down, they can't go any lower. I just use this excuse to cover up lack of courage, I know.

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Hidden costs and risks of outsourcing

Is this a wishful thinking thing or what?

I consider recent troubles with product quality of goods produced overseas (first pet food, then toys) to be indicative of the overall quality of stuff done remotely as far as both the management and consumers are concerned. It's only the matter of time before those risks play. And also a matter of how closely the products touch health of consumers. I mean, what difference does it make if my stonewashed jeans wear to holes in just 3 month? No big deal. But lead in crayons or toys intended for children under 5?! Software, even less important. Unless your customer data is compromised and made accessible for identity thieves. The latter will blow, too, risking your entire company. Just not so soon.