Inverstor's confidence was broken...

...in August-September. DJIA appears to be trending down with next level of 12,600 (due early December) where upwards correction is possible. But the way it looks to me now, the level of 14,000 will be unreachable for next 5-6 months. Adjustments made to my portfolio: bought BEARX, FXA, and FXM.

Steady now!

Maybe I did learn some lessons. Having bought AMD @ $11.00 way back then, failing to sell at forty-something, and holding on to more than half of it until now, I don't regret selling NTDO.Y @ $67.58, since this represents close to 190% profit. NTDO.Y may still go much higher, split, but along the way there will be setbacks. I think risks of market meltdown are quite high, and, as of now, I'm collecting my courage to either enter positions in a couple of ProShares UltraShorts, or maybe in something less innovative like BEARX or RYURX. I'm gonna still hold on to CMG (as an alternative to KO, PEP and MCD), and I hope EPR may do well. What else can cheer people up if economy goes bad? Comfort foods and entertainment...

USU is down and now I know why

There is a problem with information flow. While USU was falling down, there were no newsbites explaining why, with the exception of conspiracy theory that US government was dumping Low Enriched Uranium to... to... uhm... make nuclear sector unappealing? Whatever. People (and bigger stock holders) where simply in the know about which direction the appeal to lift anti-dumping measures against LEU exports from Russia was going. And those who did not know of a direction did nevertheless speculate on an outcome that would be so highly negative for USEC, thus the market consensus. And unfortunately for me I opened position in USU at a bad time. In this light, American Centrifuge Project by USEC is certainly a waste of money. I wonder, could I have known any of this before? Which information source did I miss? Now the likelihood of me closing this position with 56% loss is very high. Oh well, I'll subtract this loss from other gains.

Dow-n-trend estabilished

It was, I guess, estabilished for some while, but it only became obvious to me today. Mr. Hulbert was right, that really was a triple-top in July. As I see it now, the rally is on its last legs. I give Dow Jones Industrial Average a week to hang in the current range of 13750-14000, and it's only down from there. So far, I sold into this rally my OXY (64.5), ERTS (56.09), and NOK (34.09). I'd want to let go of LUKOY (90.45), EWT (18.43), NTDOY (66.19), COP (92.19) and AMD (14.91). Set the limit trades, but as usual, I may have guessed the tops for those wrong. We'll see. I have my doubts on AMD, though, it may go higher since its Barcelonas are selling very well. Newegg is charging > 100% premium on preorders, and no evaluation server can be had from one brand name top-5 PC server vendor.

Another issue that remains, why do I and should I hold on to stoks that have losses currently? USU and NFLX are the loss leaders... One flawed line of thinking is, they're so down, they can't go any lower. I just use this excuse to cover up lack of courage, I know.

Hidden costs and risks of outsourcing

Is this a wishful thinking thing or what?

I consider recent troubles with product quality of goods produced overseas (first pet food, then toys) to be indicative of the overall quality of stuff done remotely as far as both the management and consumers are concerned. It's only the matter of time before those risks play. And also a matter of how closely the products touch health of consumers. I mean, what difference does it make if my stonewashed jeans wear to holes in just 3 month? No big deal. But lead in crayons or toys intended for children under 5?! Software, even less important. Unless your customer data is compromised and made accessible for identity thieves. The latter will blow, too, risking your entire company. Just not so soon.

News... what news?

Wow. Just have a moment to comprehend the gravity of the situation.

Now, folks who's been trading stocks for more that a length of one cycle may be unfased (and probably they are out of stocks by now). But a green-horn like myself? I would be very scared had I had more than 30% of my savings in stocks.

Anyway. What I would look for next. I should set a "fair" price on domestic stocks I hold, so that if a rebound happens in the upcoming weeks, I would pocket profits and be free to play upcoming downturn. Considering investment vehicles from proshares.com, both shorts and ultrashorts.

Also, Qualcomm will become a contrarian play once Nokia lawsuit is priced in.

IRA game comes to an end

...and unfortunately, I have to conclude that I'm not a player :(

Last steps I'm planning to take: get out of DIVX position and replace it with something resilient to crisis. It may be KO, or PG, or JNJ. Sadly, I don't even have enough funds to open a position in GRZZX. This almost has been a humbling experience. I'm totally puzzled about folks in stock games doubling their virtual portfolios in a week. What's the secret?

One discovery I made during this time, is that zero-fee brokers are starting to appear. Makes sense to me: have ad-supported brokerage that allows a limited number of trades per month. I do fit the profile, for sure. Only limitation could be that they may not allow IRA accounts... But it will only be a matter of time before they do.

Another thing to mention, whether you would grin or feel sorry for me, is that just after I opened position in USU, next day it'd fallen 4.8%. That's not a touch of Midas I possess, it seems :)